What could be next? Five questions in the SNC-Lavalin saga

What could be next? Five questions in the SNC-Lavalin saga

Will police lay charges? Will report resonate with voters? Will Jody Wilson-Raybould get re-elected?

As the fallout continues in the wake of Wednesday’s damning ethics report on the SNC-Lavalin affair, there are still a number of twists and turns in the road ahead for what has turned out to be an enduring political saga.

Here are five:

Will the RCMP lay charges, and if so, when?

A spokesperson for the Mounties said Wednesday they are “examining this matter carefully with all available information and will take appropriate actions as required.” Hardly compelling stuff, but it raised eyebrows among those more accustomed to the standard “no comment” when it comes to matters not yet under investigation — and leaves open the possibility of criminal charges on the eve of a federal election campaign (although the standards for an ethical breach are far different from those for criminal conduct). Timing will be everything. The RCMP faced criticism in the wake of the trial of Sen. Mike Duffy, who was acquitted on all 31 charges after a courtroom spectacle that did nothing to help the doomed re-election bid of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. Will that scar tissue — or the lingering memory of the botched prosecution of Vice-Adm. Mark Norman — give the authorities pause?

RELATED: Trudeau repeats non-apology for ‘standing up for jobs’ in SNC-Lavalin case

How will the ethics commissioner’s report play with voters?

The Liberals took a hit in public opinion polls when the SNC-Lavalin controversy first rocked the national capital earlier this year. Recent polls suggested they were recouping some of those losses. Will Wednesday’s fresh wound hurt the Liberals come election day? It’s too early to say. Reaction on social media and in comment sections would suggest those already upset with the Trudeau Liberals and deeply partisan Conservatives, NDP and Green supporters have made up their minds already. Liberal partisans, meanwhile, say they are pleased with the prime minister’s recent show of defiance, refusing to apologize for what he characterizes as trying to protect Canadian jobs. That leaves the undecideds — and among those who believe this election is about trust, the Liberals are likely to take a hit. But local races do matter, and strong local MPs could help ease the sting.

What’s the long game for Jody Wilson-Raybould?

The former attorney general-turned-independent MP at the heart of the saga has expressed vindication from Dion’s report, and dismay at the evidence therein that Trudeau’s lawyer tried to “discredit” her through submissions made to the ethics commissioner. But the savvy political operative within her is not going to leave it at that. As an independent in a race against well-funded, established candidates, she will need to leverage as much political capital as possible to regain her seat in the House of Commons. Just how she might use this report to do that remains a mystery — for now. One thing is certain: she’s not going away. Her forthcoming book is to be released just in time for the election.

What will opposition parties do to capitalize?

Both the Conservatives and NDP have already launched their first move, calling for the Commons ethics committee to be “urgently convened” in order to call Dion to testify. They point to the fact former ethics commissioner Mary Dawson testified after finding in 2017 that Trudeau broke ethics rules when he took his family on vacation in 2016 to the private Bahamian island owned by the Aga Khan. The meeting will likely happen, but the Liberal majority on the committee will determine the outcome — even successfully blocking testimony will be fodder for their opposition rivals.

ALSO READ: Scheer assails Trudeau after ethics report, urges police to probe SNC-Lavalin case

Do voters care about SNC-Lavalin anymore?

As the Bard once said: that is the question. In the wake of the marathon hearings and relentless media coverage earlier this year, there was a palpable sense of fatigue when it finally started to die down. Many voters have likely already formed an opinion about how they feel Trudeau, Wilson-Raybould and others behaved on the file and the ethics commissioner’s ruling may not change those views. However, given the uncertainty about how many of the issues raised above could play out on the campaign trail, political watchers and voters alike would be wise not to close the book on SNC-Lavalin yet.

Teresa Wright, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Just Posted

The Sylvan Lake Gulls show off the home jerseys (white) and their way jerseys at the Gulls Media Day on June 17, before the season opener. Following the media day, the team took to the field for their first practise. (Photo by Megan Roth/Sylvan Lake News)
Sylvan Lake Gulls ready to throw first pitch as construction continues

The Gulls inaugural season kicks off June 18 with a game against the Edmonton Prospects

Alberta is now below 3,000 active cases of COVID-19, as the province reported 2,639 Wednesday. (NIAID-RML via AP)
Red Deer below 100 active COVID-19 cases for first time since March

69.7 per cent of Albertans 12 and over have at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine

Premier Jason Kenney says the provincial government is doing everything it can to encourage Albertans to get vaccinated. (Photo by Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta)
Travel prizes added to Alberta’s vaccine lottery

More than 40 travel rewards available for those who are fully vaccinated

People line up to get their COVID-19 vaccine at a vaccination centre, Thursday, June 10, 2021 in Montreal. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz
Vaccines, low COVID case counts increase Father’s Day hope, but risk is still there

Expert says people will have to do their own risk calculus before popping in on Papa

The border crossing into the United States is seen during the COVID-19 pandemic in Lacolle, Que. on Friday, February 12, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson
U.S. border restrictions to remain in place until at least July 21

Safety minister says Canada, U.S. extending restrictions on non-essential international travel

The Calgary skyline is seen on Friday, Sept. 15, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
2 deaths from COVID-19 Delta variant in Alberta, 1 patient was fully immunized

Kerry Williamson with Alberta Health Services says the patients likely acquired the virus in the hospital

A vial containing the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is shown at a vaccination site in Marcq en Baroeul, outside Lille, northern France, Saturday, March 20, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP/Michel Spingler
mRNA vaccines ‘preferred’ for all Canadians, including as 2nd dose after AstraZeneca: NACI

New recommendations prioritizes Pfizer, Moderna in almost all cases

House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C., center left, reaches over to Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., joined by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., center, and members of the Congressional Black Caucus as they celebrate the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act that creates a new federal holiday to commemorate June 19, 1865, when Union soldiers brought the news of freedom to enslaved Black people after the Civil War, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, June 17, 2021. It’s the first new federal holiday since Martin Luther King Jr. Day was created in 1983. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Biden to sign bill making Juneteenth a federal holiday

New American stat marks the nation’s end of slavery

A screenshot of the First Peoples Cultural Councils First Peoples’ Map. (First Peoples Cultural Council)
Online resource blends B.C.-Alberta’s Indigenous languages, art and culture

Advisor says initiative supports the urgent need to preserve Indigenous languages

A plane is silhouetted as it takes off from Vancouver International Airport in Richmond, B.C., May 13, 2019. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
Report calls for airlines to refund passengers for flights halted due to COVID-19

Conclusion: federal help should be on the condition airlines immediately refund Canadian travellers

Green party Leader Annamie Paul speaks during a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Tuesday, June 15, 2021. Paul has survived another day of party strife after a planned ouster shifted course, leaving her with a tenuous grip on power ahead of a likely federal election this year. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang
Green Leader Annamie Paul blasts ‘racist,’ ‘sexist’ party execs who sought ouster

Fallout has continued, with two of the federal council’s members resigning

Most Read